N.A. Chems & Pkg'g "Coatings Raws Monthly Update" Spector

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg'g "Coatings Raws Monthly Update" Spector

Global Research

11 June 2026ab

N.A. Chems & Pkg'g Equities

AmericasCoatings Raws Monthly Update

Chemicals, Commodity

Joshua Spector, CFA

Monitoring trends in input costs for key coatings (& downstream chem) raws Analyst

This report provides incremental data on trends in the raw materials basket, and joshua.spector@ubs.com

helps us understand if price/raws dynamics are better or worse than planned. The +1-212-713 6188

latest update reflects a rebasing higher of most petchem raws in response to the Lucas Beaumont

Middle East disruption, where input forecasts had been slow to adjust over the Analyst

past few months. We hadn't updated this model since March, as some of the lucas.beaumont@ubs.com

consultant forecasts we use were slow to adjust, and we didn't want to +1-212-713 4809

extrapolate peak pricing. Our model forecasts inflation peaking in the low-mid James Cannon

teens % Y/Y range in 2H26, with costs remaining at higher levels through 1H27 Associate Analyst

before starting to moderate. This leads to coatings raws inflation up ~8% Y/Y in james-p.cannon@ubs.com

2026, and ~3% higher in 2027. Versus our update in march, this reflects +1-212-713 4057

~500/200bps higher inflation in 2026/27. Christopher Perrella

Analyst

This latest forecast reflects an earlier peak and decline vs. our most recent coatings christopher.perrella@ubs.com

model updates, which reflect more MSD%/HSD% inflation in 2026/27, and a +1-212-713 1443

peak in 1H27. There are a lot of moving factors here, and we expect our spot

Anojja Shah

model isn't perfect, but directionally we're getting to a peak in the low-teens,

which is consistent with our expectations. Though this still seems higher than most anojja.shah@ubs.com