N.A. Chems & Pkg’g "Takeaways from RISI Expert Call on US Containerboard..."

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg’g "Takeaways from RISI Expert Call on US Containerboard..."

highly concentrated industry structure. The top three

producers (GPK, SW, Paperworks) control roughly 98% of capacity, enabling disciplined

supply management through downtime and operational flexibility. Looking ahead,

pricing is expected to remain highly dependent on supply-side actions. Without capacity

closures, RISI forecasts CRB prices could decline by $30-50/ton this year, reflecting the

growing imbalance between supply and weakening demand.

Not expecting further SBS price declines

Solid bleached sulfate (SBS) is in a more unusual position. The historical premium to CRB

has compressed sharply, from $270/ton to ~$20/ton today, a level that is economically

unsustainable, given SBS production costs are about $200/ton higher. This dynamic

implies that normalization will need to occur either through lower CRB prices or higher

SBS pricing. The experts lean toward stabilization through SBS price increases,

particularly if capacity closures materialize. In that scenario, RISI forecasts SBS prices

could increase by ~$80/ton by YE2026. Without closures (assumed ~250K tons), pricing

is more likely to remain flat, rather than deteriorate. One supportive factor is improving

trade dynamics. European FBB imports have been declining, driven by tariffs, currency

impacts, and increased domestic capacity. Imports were down 16% y/y in 2025 and a

further 7% in 1Q26, helping to reduce pressure on US SBS pricing.

Higher potential for price increases in SBS cupstock vs. folding cartons

End-market dynamics within SBS are increasingly diverging. The experts believe that

price increase attempts currently in the market have a credible path to realization in

cupstock, but are less likely to stick in folding cartons.