Valero Energy Corp "Takeaways from Non-Deal Road Show" (Buy) Gupta

Research evidence excerpt

Valero Energy Corp "Takeaways from Non-Deal Road Show" (Buy) Gupta

Global Research

11 June 2026ab

Valero Energy Corp Equities

United StatesTakeaways from Non-Deal Road Show

Oil Companies, Secondary

12-month rating Buy

We hosted VLO management for investor lunch in Chicago

Senior management worked very closely with Risk Management team in 1Q26; 12m price target US$280.00

pro-active inventory management ensured that, unlike majors and some peers,

they did not incur the hedge losses / margin calls.

Price (10 Jun 2026) US$257.99

According to third party data and consultants, it's estimated that over 5 MMb/d of RIC: VLO.N BBG: VLO US

global refining capacity remains offline (ME , Asia and Russia). The longer this

remains offline, the more time it will take to replenish the globally depleted Trading data and key metrics

product inventory. 52-wk range US$262.62-131.77

Market cap. US$79.7b

Given higher volatility, VLO might choose to hold more cash on the balance sheet.

Shares o/s 309m (COM)

However, still very committed to returning excess cash to shareholders.

Free float 82%

US refining utilization is elevated (not possible to run much harder), and it also has Avg. daily volume ('000) 932

RVP waiver, yet gasoline inventory is low, which indicates that demand remains Avg. daily value (m) US$226.6

very strong. Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$23.0b

Given most refiners are in max diesel mode, we could see very tight gasoline P/BV (12/26E) 3.2x

markets in summer driving season. The gap between gasoline and diesel cracks Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.6x

could close, which would basically imply higher gasoline cracks and Europe / Asia EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

are short diesel. 12/26E

It's important to note that during this time of the year, generally arbs to import UBS Cons.