Memory industry - Arrival of AI era, cyclical performance becomes less pronounced

Research evidence excerpt

Memory industry - Arrival of AI era, cyclical performance becomes less pronounced

Taiwan Equity | Technology

Sector In-depth

Fubon Research Memory industry

June 11, 2026

Arrival of AI era, cyclical performance becomes less pronounced

Overweight

Memory industry cycle performance impact diminishing; top investment picks Phison,

NTC, Winbond

1. Cyclical characteristics of memory industry have diminished after emergence of

generative AI

2. Future industry technology development to focus more on advanced packaging than

process miniaturization, suppressing expansion capacity in medium to long term

3. Memory prices continue to rise in 2H, investors expected to eventually replenish

their holdings

Source: Piscine/Getty Images by Gemini Flash

Focus analysis

Structural transformation of industry cycle

We analyze the inventory and DOI of pure memory manufacturer SK Hynix and analog IC

giant Texas Instruments (TI) over 25 quarters since 1Q20, and found that the memory

industry experienced roughly two minor cycles during the period, with fundamental

changes occurring in its cyclical characteristics. First, the volatility of the memory cycle has

narrowed. Taking SK Hynix as an example, the peaks and troughs of inventory and

operating cycles after 1Q23 have significantly narrowed, indicating that stable demand

brought by AI is smoothing traditional economic fluctuations. During the same period, TI's

cyclical characteristics are more pronounced, with longer duration and greater amplitude.

Richard Hsia Secondly, we found that since the launch of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, TI’s DOI

(886-2) 2781-5995 ext. 37011

remains in a prolonged post-pandemic correction cycle. In contrast, SK Hynix’s inventory

richard.hsia@fubon.com

DOI declined, and volatility has clearly diminished since 1Q23.