Iran disruption tracker #69: WTI below $90 brings technical risk back into play, on a ceasefire

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #69: WTI below $90 brings technical risk back into play, on a ceasefire

Hormuz uncertainty have delayed 500,000 bpd of

Chinese refining capacity, creating one of the first major downstream impacts of the conflict outside the Middle

East and potentially reducing future crude demand growth.

●ADNOC Expands Hormuz Workarounds: ADNOC has launched a second crude tender in a week while offering

loading options outside traditional Gulf export routes, highlighting how producers are increasingly using ship-to-

ship transfers, AIS-dark voyages, and alternative logistics to keep oil flowing despite Hormuz disruptions.

●Saudi Arabia Signals Demand Concerns: Aramco cut July crude prices for a second consecutive month, including

a $6/bbl reduction for Asian buyers, indicating demand weakness is outweighing geopolitical supply fears in key

consuming markets.

●Airline Fuel Inflation Accelerates: U.S. airline fuel costs surged 78% in April to nearly $6.5 billion, providing an

early indication that higher crude and refined product prices are feeding into transportation costs.

●Hormuz May Reopen With a Cost: Iran's ambassador to Moscow said the Strait of Hormuz will remain open but

could operate under a new fee structure jointly managed with Oman, potentially raising transportation costs for

global energy flows even if physical transit resumes.

●Lloyd's list reports that Iranian "service fees" for transiting the Strait of Hormuz have fallen sharply from early-

crisis demands of $1.5m to $2m. Current per-transit charges are ~$120,000 for bulk carriers and up to $160,000

for tankers, varying by vessel type, cargo, and owner nationality. This contrasts with early demands during the