Private Homebuilder Survey – May 2026 Sales Decline -0.5% MoM

Research evidence excerpt

Private Homebuilder Survey – May 2026 Sales Decline -0.5% MoM

June 9, 2026

sales cannibalization and improved operating leverage should the softer demand environment continue. Conversely, the

risk is eventual interest rate declines spark demand, leaving the builders short lots and driving inflationary development

and home pricing.

May Gross Margin

May Gross Margins declined 70 bps MoM on average versus April inflecting back toward the March level. For May, the

mix of survey respondents indicating sequential improvement versus declines was nearly evenly split. This month, we

asked if the Iran conflict and rise in oil pricing was driving input cost inflation. Again, survey responses were split

with 48% of builders indicating they were seeing cost inflation. This is meaningfully different from public builder

1Q conference call commentary suggesting large public builders were yet to take on cost increases.

Open Ended Questions

What were your Incentives as a % of Orders in the following period:

March ’26: 5.1%

April ‘26: 4.6%

May ’26: 5.4%

Are you seeing Iran/oil related input cost inflation?

Yes 48%

No 52%

Given the volatility in March and April due to the Iran conflict, do you expect the spring selling season to be

“extended” and to see better than normal seasonality this summer?

Expect better than normal seasonality this summer 9%

Expect typical seasonality this summer 49%

Expect below normal seasonality this summer 42%

As mortgage rates moved higher in recent months, did industry rate buydown incentives also move higher or did

they remain the same, implying incremental GM pressure?

Promotional mortgage rates moved higher with a rise in the “market” mortgage rate 56%

Promotional mortgage rates were unchanged despite higher “market” mortgage rates 44%