Asia Economic Weekly: Japan: Oil shock: Pipeline pressures set to lift CPI from autumn

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Economic Weekly: Japan: Oil shock: Pipeline pressures set to lift CPI from autumn

Accessible version

Asia Economic Weekly

Japan: Oil shock: Pipeline pressures set to

lift CPI from autumn

This week in focus 12 June 2026

Amid persistent global volatility, recent data points to mixed economic trends across the GEM Fixed Income Strategy &

region. In China, export continued to remain robust on global tech cycle upswing. CPI Economics

inflation steady in May while PPI inflation strength persists. In India, the RBI held the Asia

policy rate while flagging risks ahead. The central bank revised its FY27 growth

projections lower and inflation higher. In Japan, wage growth remained firm, with broad- Table of Contents

based wage growth likely to cushion external headwinds. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, BI This Week in Focus 1

turned more proactive with an off-cycle rate hike to stabilize FX and attract capital

Japan in Focus 3

flows.

Data Preview 5

Japan: Oil shock: Pipeline pressures set to lift CPI from Macro Forecasts 7

autumn Research Analysts 12

Oil price increases are likely to feed into CPI, pushing inflation back above 3% from

autumn. Faster upstream transmission and more aggressive pricing by firms could Helen Qiao

further intensify inflation pressures. If inflation expectations overshoot, the BoJ is likely ChinaMerrill&LynchAsia Economist(Hong Kong)

to turn more hawkish. helen.qiao@bofa.com

Izumi Devalier

Week ahead JapanBofASEconomistJapan

In the coming week, we turn our focus to the monetary policy meetings in Japan, izumi.devalier@bofa.com

Australia, Indonesia and Philippines, alongside a flurry of data releases across the region. Rahul Bajoria

India & ASEAN Economist

We expect BoJ, BI and BSP to hike the policy rate by 25bps to 1.00%, 5.75% and 4.75%, BofAS India