FX and Rates Sentiment Survey: EURUSD round-trip complete

Research evidence excerpt

FX and Rates Sentiment Survey: EURUSD round-trip complete

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FX and Rates Sentiment Survey

EURUSD round-trip complete

Key takeaways 11 June 2026

Rates and FX• Investors hold a short EURUSD view for the first time since liberation day

Global

• A pivot in the balance of risks for US growth vs inflation drove a pivot in US curve

positions from steepeners to flatteners

• EM views and positioning slipped from the exhilaration in May, but both FX and

duration sentiment remain above Feb/Mar '26

EURUSD bearishness back to pre-liberation day Ralf Preusser, CFA

In line with our bias (see report: Chart Alpha 20 May 2026), investors pivoted to a short Rates Strategist

MLI (UK)

EURUSD view (see Exhibit 1), though with positioning lagging behind (Exhibit 38 and ralf.preusser@bofa.com

Exhibit 41). Adarsh Sinha

FX and Rates Strategist

Investors see the ECB as less likely to surprise hawkish than the Fed (Exhibit 12) and MLI (UK) adarsh.sinha@bofa.com

more likely to surprise dovish than the Fed (Exhibit 13). Respondents see upside inflation

Meghan Swiber, CFA

risks as more mispriced than downside US growth risks (Exhibit 14). Almost a third see Rates Strategist

minimum conditions for a rate hike already met (Exhibit 19). US data resilience is seen BofAS meghan.swiber@bofa.com

as a key tailwind for USD (Exhibit 15) and AI is seen as unequivocally positive for USD

Michalis Rousakis

(Exhibit 17). FX Strategist

Exhibit 1: EUR FX and USD FX views since 2012 michalis.rousakis@bofa.com

EUR net bearish, USD net bullish, with the spread at levels last seen in Feb 2025 (pre liberation day) Edvard Davidsson

Rates Strategist

60 edvard.davidsson@bofa.com

USD View EUR View

Raghav Adlakha

40 EM Quant/Sovereign Strategist

raghav.adlakha@bofa.com

20 Global Rates & Currencies Research