Asahi Group Holdings (2502): FY12/25 guidance cut; revised plan below our estimates and consensus

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Asahi Group Holdings (2502): FY12/25 guidance cut; revised plan below our estimates and consensus

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Asahi Group Holdings (2502)

FY12/25 guidance cut; revised plan below

our estimates and consensus

Maintain Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 1,700 JPY | Price: 1,545 JPY

11 June 2026

Earnings forecast revised downward Equity

Asahi Group Holdings announced a downward revision to its FY12/25 consolidated

earnings forecast at 15:30 on June 11. Business profit was lowered from ¥290bn to Manabu Sumoge >>

¥260bn, and operating profit from ¥255bn to ¥185bn. The decline in business profit was ResearchBofAS JapanAnalyst

driven primarily by the Japan business. The reduction in operating profit mainly reflects +81 3 6225 8855

an impairment loss in Southeast Asia (approximately ¥15bn) associated with a segment manabu.sumoge@bofa.com

change implemented in 3Q. The revised business profit falls short of our estimate YuxiResearchDai >>Analyst

(¥268.5bn) and the Visible Alpha consensus (¥271.5bn). While detailed disclosure was BofAS Japan

yuxi.dai@bofa.com

limited, the outcome suggests on the face of it that profit declines from lower volumes

in Japan have materialized, and we estimate that cost reductions were insufficient at

both the Japan and consolidated levels.

Stock Data

FY12/25 results scheduled for July 8

Price 1,545 JPY

Due to a cyberattack, the FY12/25 full-year results originally scheduled for February

Price Objective 1,700 JPY

2026 are now set to be announced on July 8. Recently, alcohol beverage volumes in

Date Established 19-Mar-2026

Japan have shown signs of recovery, supported by the launch of new and limited-edition

Investment Opinion B-2-7

products. However, we believe upfront marketing investments are likely being made, and

52-Week Range 1,453-2,006 JPY