Aldar Properties: Defensive and resilient. Earnings reset more than priced in.

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Aldar Properties: Defensive and resilient. Earnings reset more than priced in.

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Aldar Properties

Defensive and resilient. Earnings reset

more than priced in.

Reinstating Coverage: BUY | PO: 10.00 AED | Price: 7.32 AED

Abu Dhabi resilience 11 June 2026

We reinstate coverage of Aldar at Buy with an AED10.0 price objective, implying 39% Equity

total shareholder return. Demographics and Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) expansion

remain key tailwinds. Abu Dhabi’s population has grown faster than Dubai’s over 2023- MarcResearchMozziAnalyst>>

25E and the ADGM ecosystem continued to expand with 8% QoQ new licences issued in BofASE (France)

Q1’26. We see Aldar more defensive and less cyclical than its peers thanks to its +33marc.mozzi@bofa.com1 8770 0374

dominant exposure to Abu Dhabi and more balanced profit mix with half of its net profit Thomas Hynes >>

coming from investment activities. We see the stock to be priced for an unlikely worst- Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

case scenario of a structural housing, hospitality and leisure demand reset, see: MENA +44 20 7995 9037

sector report. thomas.hynes2@bofa.com

Markus Kulessa >>

Earnings reset: c.45% below Street ResearchBofASE (France)Analyst

The slowdown in housing demand - already happening: Damac Properties, 05/2026 (see +33 1 8770 0382

markus.kulessa@bofa.com

report) coincides with project completions and likely moderation in new launches. We

model a 30% YoY decline in development sales in 2026E, followed by a 9% rebound in

2027E. At the same time, we assume materials cost inflation of >15% and high single digit

price decline, driving EBITDA margin down to 27% trough in 2028E. Beyond residential, Stock Data

hospitality is under pressure with occupancy falling to 36% in Abu Dhabi, while Abu Dhabi Price 7.32 AED