Global Economic Viewpoint: London Small Talks Symposium – what did we learn?

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economic Viewpoint: London Small Talks Symposium – what did we learn?

itive market sentiment. Near-term rate cuts are likely, but the NBH will be cautious. +44 20 7996 3011 loic.porte@bofa.com

Romania’s 2026 fiscal picture is much better than expected, helping to cushion near- Hande Kucuk

term political uncertainty, but 2027-28 is the real test. In Czechia, high energy prices and Turkey & Israel Economist

looser fiscal trends argue for a more hawkish CNB. We now expect further rate hikes, MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 3948

potentially to 4% by YE2026, although market pricing beyond that looks excessive. hande.kucuk@bofa.com

Vladimir Osakovskiy >>

SSA: South Africa fiscal anchor; LIC DSA holistic reform EMMerrillSovereignLynch (DIFC)FI/EQ strategist

We see tight monetary policy and improving fiscal credibility in South Africa. Reform of +971 4 425 8291

vladimir.osakovskiy@bofa.com

the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability

Analysis (LIC DSA) points to a shift toward a more integrated approach to debt risks. MikhailEEMEA LocalLiluashviliMarkets Strategist

Total Return Swaps (TRS) and resource-backed financing raise investor concerns. SSA MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 1142

credit concerns are concentrated in Senegal, Mozambique, with Gabon flagged too. mikhail.liluashvili@bofa.com

Türkiye & MENA: in the eye of the storm SonaliUK EconomistPunhani

MLI (UK)

Authorities see Türkiye reserve pressures as manageable, with tight stance to continue. +44 20 7996 1032

IMF SLA seventh review in Egypt may be nearing, but board level approval hinges on sonali.punhani@bofa.com

divestment progress. Lebanese authorities maintain a prudent policy mix and Saudi Chiara Angeloni

Europe Economist

lifting of its export ban is positive; reforms are delayed by the war.