How 'Bout Them Cowboys? Closer Look at Dallas Market Share

Research evidence excerpt

How 'Bout Them Cowboys? Closer Look at Dallas Market Share

resenting 5% of its domestic network.

How do AAL and LUV Match-Up in Dallas? AAL and LUV each have dominant market share

positions at DFW and DAL, respectively. When looking at the entire Dallas market (DFW & DAL), AAL

ranks first in 2025 and H2:2026 domestic market share at 68% and 69%, respectively. LUV ranks

second w/ 17% in 2025/H1:2026. While the US domestic network has evolved post-pandemic, the

Dallas market has been steady at the top with AAL holding a 69% domestic share since 2019 w/

Southwest at 17% (Ex 1). The main change vs. pre-pandemic is the ascension Frontier w/ domestic

share rising from 0% in 2019 to 4% in H2:2026. Frontier's market share gains primarily came at the

expense of smaller players in the market as the top four ranked carriers have seen share relatively

steady since 2019.

Dallas Growth Has Outpaced Toal US by 5pts. Originating ASMs in 2025 from the Dallas market

have grown 15% vs. 2019, outpacing US domestic capacity up a lesser 10% (Ex 2). However, Q2:26

growth in Dallas was more tempered w/ domestic capacity flat y-o-y, driven by AAL +1.6% and LUV

-0.8%.

AAL, LUV & UAL Provide Updates at Conference w/ Key Take That Demand Remains Resilient.

We heard from both Dallas-based carriers last week at a conference in addition to UAL. While we

did not receive any formal Q2 guidance updates - AAL, LUV and UAL all pointed to a robust demand

environment w/ no signs of degradation on any point of the bookings curve despite multiple industry

fare hikes in order to cover surging fuel costs. Drilling into company-specific commentary, UAL sees

resilient demand despite multiple fare hikes YTD, allowing mgmt to pull fwd its 100% fuel recapture Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst