Greek Banks: Macroeconomic Picture Remains Robust - from Recovery to Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Greek Banks: Macroeconomic Picture Remains Robust - from Recovery to Growth

Greece | Banks EquityJuneResearch8, 2026

FIRST VIEWGreek Banks: Macroeconomic Picture

Remains Robust - from Recovery to Growth

Conclusion Exhibit 1 - Greece continues to grow above EU

The recovery and continued strength of the Greek macroeconomic area1Q26 GDP growth YoY

3.5%environment is key to the investment case for the banks. Following the 3.0%

2.5%release of the Eurozone 1Q26 GDP data, we look at the performance YTD 2.0

and other key drivers of the macro story. 2.0%1.5%

1.0% 0.7

Greece has moved into a much stronger position vs EU peers, specifically 0.5%0.0%

on the government fiscal position. Greece was one of only five countries

Source: Eurostatrunning surplus budgets across all of Europe in 2025 and is expected to .

continue this trend in coming years. Exhibit 2 - Greece was one of five countries to

produce a budget surplus in 2025

Lending growth also remains strong and well above the EU average Government surplus/deficit as % GDP (2025)

with corporate growth remaining the key driver. While investment spend 4.0%2.0% 1.7

continues to grow, there is still room to go for Greece to converge with the 0.0%

-2.0%EU while also benefitting from the RRF tailwinds.

-4.0% -2.9

-6.0%Greek banks operate in one of the most attractive macroeconomic

environments in all of Europe which has remained robust during these .

uncertain times. As the BoG Governor recently stated, "Greece has shifted Source: Eurostat

its focus from recovery to strategic acceleration." With these banks trading Exhibit 3 - The government debt burden has

reduced 40% since 2016 (or 60% since 2020)

at a c15% discount to the sector, we reiterate our BUY ratings on all four Change in government debt % GDP since 2016

names. 30%

20%

10%