U.S. Data Pulse: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: An uptick in sentiment, driven by middle and lower income cohorts

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Data Pulse: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: An uptick in sentiment, driven by middle and lower income cohorts

UpdateM

Preliminary June University of Michigan consumer sentiment

survey

Headline consumer sentiment showed an improvement for the month of June, after

sequential declines in March and April. The level of the index, however, remains close to

historical lows.

Exhibit 2: Overall consumer sentiment declined sharply, across current and expected

conditions

June May M/M Y/Y

Preliminary April 2026 Survey

2026 2026 Change Change

Index of Consumer Sentiment 48.9 44.8 9.2% -19.4%

Current Economic Conditions 48.4 45.8 5.7% -25.3%

Index of Consumer Expectations 49.3 44.1 11.8% -15.1%

Source: University of Michigan, Morgan Stanley Research

The sentiment by income cohorts shows that the uptick in the sentiment index was the

largest among families in the income cohort earning less than $100k/year. The sentiment

among the cohorts earning more than $100k/year moved sideways. During the month of

May, the pace of increase in gas prices has decelerated relative to March, and that could

have been a factor in the improvement of sentiment among the income cohorts that have

a higher share of energy spend in their budgets.

Exhibit 3: The improvement in sentiment was driven by the Exhibit 4: The improvement in sentiment was across the

uptick among the lower-income cohort sentiment political spectrum

Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index of Consumer Sentiment by Political Affiliation

95 110

75 80

55 50

Index of Consumer Sentiment

45 Families w/ inc< $100k/Yr

Families w/Inc > $100k/Yr Democrats Independents Republicans

35 20

Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research