BoE Preview: Enter the Matrix

Research evidence excerpt

BoE Preview: Enter the Matrix

e cognisant of hawkish risks to our view. Absent the OilUSD92/bblGaspeakspeaksUSD130/bblat 211p/therm& falls& Scenario C

anchor of MPR analyses, we have found that individual voting paragraphs in the falls to 104p/therm

meeting minutes do leave some room for interpretation. Source: BoE (April meeting minutes), Morgan Stanley Research

Vote split and messaging: We expect a 7:2 vote for a hold, with external member

Greene and Chief Economist Pill voting for a hike. While we accept that more

tangible signs of progress around the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz could result in 1 Exhibit 2 : Our Bank Rate expectations vs.

dissent instead of 2, we do firmly think that no incoming newsflow would suffice for market pricing

Chief Economist Pill to vote for a hold vs. a hike. Without any material BoE Bank Rate, %

developments around the supply of commodities out of the Middle East, we would 5.5 ActualMarket pricing, April 2026 MSMarketResearchpricing, June 2026

see risks as skewed towards more hawkish dissents instead. We are particularly

5.0

focused on deputy governors Ramsden and Lombardelli, as they have not given

speeches recently, and look to have hinted in April that a hike might be needed in 4.5

Scenario B. 4.0

MPC discussions & the Staff assessment of the economy: Barring any material 3.5 May-24 Jun-25 Jul-26 Sep-27

surprises in the data next week, we assume the tone of the Staff's assessment of Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

the economic developments since April will lean dovish. The economy has been

softening since then, and headline inflation is running sub-April MPR forecasts. In

this note, we go into detail on a topic that we think will dominate MPC discussions

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with