NUVL: Potential GSK-NUVL Deal—We Think $9-10B Makes Sense and See Limited FTC Risk

Research evidence excerpt

NUVL: Potential GSK-NUVL Deal—We Think $9-10B Makes Sense and See Limited FTC Risk

Equity Research

Flash Comment — June 8, 2026

Biotechnology

Nuvalent, Inc.

Potential GSK-NUVL Deal—We Think $9-10B Makes Sense Overweight

and See Limited FTC Risk Price Target: $116.00

Ticker NUVL

Our Call Upside/(Downside) to Target 31.1%

We think GSK makes sense as a potl acquirer for NUVL and a $9-10B deal value is in-line Price (06/08/2026) $88.49

with our model estimates. 52 Week Range $71.13 - 113.02

Market Cap (MM) $6,962

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.Initial Thoughts NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

What happened? The Financial Times reported (see article here) that GSK is in talks to

buy Nuvalent for $9-10B, with a potential deal closing this week. We are not surprised Eva Fortea Verdejo, PhD

by today's report, given the company has long been viewed as a logical M&A candidate in Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Eva.ForteaVerdejo@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5340

biotech, supported by a meaningful commercial opportunity across its pipeline in NSCLC.

The company is advancing two lead NSCLC assets: zidesamtinib, a ROS1+-targeted

TKI, and neladalkib, an ALK+-targeted TKI. For zide, the FDA PDUFA date in ROS1+ TKI-

pretreated NSCLC is Sep 18, 2026, and mgmt plans to submit data in TKI-naïve pts for

a potl label expansion in 2H26. Similarly, nela's PDUFA in ALK+ TKI-pretreated NSCLC is

in Nov 27, 2026 and the co is currently running a Phase 3 study in the TKI-naïve setting.

While NVL-330 is interesting, it is too early to assign much value.

How are we thinking about valuation? We model NUVL at $116/shr using SOTP,

probability-weighted NPV framework and a 12% discount rate, leading to an est mkt

cap of ~$9.1B.