KEY: Meeting w/CEO - Commercial Banking Is Back

Research evidence excerpt

KEY: Meeting w/CEO - Commercial Banking Is Back

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — June 8, 2026

Large-Cap Banks

KeyCorp

Meeting w/CEO - Commercial Banking Is Back Overweight

Price Target: $24.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

Wholesale banking should rule the day. KEY's legacy strength is comm'l where it seeks to Book Value/ 16.03 15.18 5.6%

be the preeminent middle-market "go to" bank. Timing is good given multi-year industry Share 2026

inflection in lending and momentum with payments and capital mkts. . Book Value/ 16.16 15.14 6.7%

Share 2027

Return on 11.0% 11.2% -2.3%

Investing for organic growth. What's new is that today we had a virtual mtg w/ the Equity 2026

CEO. Organic growth is driven by new hires and adding capabilities in middle market, Return on 12.2% 13.0% -6.1%

payments, capital markets, and wealth. We continue to have relatively more confidence in Equity 2027

the commercial bank than retail given the long-term track record. Nonetheless, we think

that the ROTCE should improve toward KEY's target of 15%+ by 4Q27 - that's up from Ticker KEY

13% in 1Q26/2026E. Upside/(Downside) to Target 10.1%

Price (06/08/2026) $21.79

Hiring strategy has tailwinds, but not forever. KEY has hired more aggressively in 52 Week Range $15.59 - 23.34

commercial and wealth (adding ~10% to sales/frontline in both 2025 and 2026), which

can be a successful strategy with 12-18 mos lagged benefits (though recent hires have Market Cap (MM) $23,846

been productive w/in 1-2Q). KEY should also benefit from fixed asset repricing over this Average Daily Value (MM) $292

time ($34B at 150bp+ higher rates). Thus, we forecast decent growth over 2 years, but Dividend Yield 3.8%

thereafter, KEY will be under more pressure to show core organic growth.

$ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY