First Read: Singapore Banks "China Cross-Border Regulations: Keeping the..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Singapore Banks "China Cross-Border Regulations: Keeping the..."

Global Research

10 June 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesSingapore Banks

China Cross-Border Regulations: Keeping the Singapore

Share Price Debate in Context Banks

Aakash Rawat, CFA

Analyst

aakash.rawat@ubs.com

Wealth management has been a key growth narrative for Singapore bank stocks, +65-6495 8283

making China's new cross-border investment regulation a natural focus for investors.

Benjamin Tan

We think the concern is real but needs to be sized carefully across two dimensions: 1) Analyst

how much of the recent re-rating was WM-driven, and 2) what a moderation in benjamin.tan-yx@ubs.com

WM growth does to the ROE trajectory. Both suggest some adjustment is +65-6495 3239

warranted, but neither supports a dramatic de-rating – anything > 5-10% correction

Grace Lim

near term will be too extreme, in our view. Economist

grace-k.lim@ubs.com

New regulations: Not primarily a capital flow story +65-6495 5965

As UBS economics notes here & here the regulation is better understood as a framework

to control the flow of technology, data, and talent alongside capital, in support of

strategic sectors. We believe there could be a secondary effect on incremental new-to-

bank flows to foreign markets, but not likely a threat to the existing AUM base.

Valuation: How much Re-rating has WM actually driven?

Meaningful compression in implied cost of equity only began in mid-2024, coinciding

with EQDP and SG capital market reform narrative rather than with WM acceleration —

WM income had already been growing strongly since 2022 without triggering a

sustained re-rating. Notably, a Sept 2025 SCMP report flagged that Chinese family office

applications to Singapore had already dropped ~50% versus 2022 peak, yet the banks