MTN Group LTD "Key takeaways from the CMD" (Buy) Skosana

Research evidence excerpt

MTN Group LTD "Key takeaways from the CMD" (Buy) Skosana

South Africa: management is prioritising quality growth and cash generation

over just market share gains, focusing on higher-value customers as well as home,

enterprise and wholesale expansion. The SA prepaid market remains challenging;

however, management aims to turn this business around through portfolio

simplification, channels and commissions optimisation, digital migration and

effectively using CVM. In home, management aims to increase its market share to

c.30% through targeted capex investments and use of partnership models. MTN

introduced a new wholesale/MVNO framework now including pricing, capacity,

quality and segmentation parameters - currently renegotiating contract with Cell

C (expected by July). The business is shifting towards disciplined, returns-focused

operations, aiming for R4-6bn in cost savings by 2029 and maintaining a stable

13% capex intensity.

Nigeria: a key growth market supported by stable macroeconomic environment,

a large youthful population, growing smartphone penetration and a strengthened

fintech strategy. Management expects growth in data, voice and fintech usage,

with mobile money wallets projected to reach 20-25 million by 2030 (vs c.3m

today).

Ghana: management expects to sustain momentum driven by customer growth,

increased data usage, strong MoMo adoption and rising demand for digital, home

and enterprise services. The aim is for mobile data to surpass 60% of service

revenue and fintech to exceed 20% by 2030, with significant growth targeted in

home connections and digital revenues. Around $1.1bn in capex is planned over

the next three years.

AI: Management views AI as a key driver for growth and efficiency across