LatAm & Americas Steel "The Caster: Demystifying Brazil’s Import Parity ..."

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm & Americas Steel "The Caster: Demystifying Brazil’s Import Parity ..."

Global Research

10 June 2026ab

LatAm & Americas Steel Equities

Latin AmericaThe Caster: Demystifying Brazil’s Import

Parity Discount Basic Materials

Caio Greiner

Analyst

caio.greiner@ubs.com

5-10% import parity discounts. We have been arguing over the past few months +55-11-2767 6294

that recent antidumping implementation for flats pushed Chinese steel out of the

Andrew Jones

game; Vietnam / South Korea are likely to become the new ‘Import parity’

reference. Recent import data indicates this shift is starting to take shape: total flat andrew-i.jones@ubs.com

steel imports were down -70% y/y in May, with Chinese imports -83% y/y lower. On +44-20-7901 6545

the other hand, imports from Viet/Skor jumped 57% YTD, although still only

Arthur Biscuola

accounting for 25% of pre-AD Chinese imports. Our channel checks with traders do

Associate Analyst

validate that these 2 regions are now the marginal suppliers into Brazil, although arthur.biscuola@ubs.com

still with very limited product offering. Since there are no benchmark price +55-11-2767 6963

references for these regions, we also rely on traders / importers information on

Alex Stansbury, CFA

price ranges being offered for Brazilian importers (see table 2) - ultimately Analyst

commanding a ~US$100-150/t premium vs. Chinese products. This has shifted alex.stansbury@ubs.com

Brazilian import parity calculations to a negative territory of 5-10%. If we assume a +1-212-882 0097

historical mean reversion to a 0-5% premium, we believe this would further support

price increase efforts over the coming months.

Price watch: June mixed, but up. Our channel checks indicate most mills have

raised prices for June at the distribution chain, but implementation seems