Harley-Davidson Presentation "Motorcycle Industry Overview" Farley

Research evidence excerpt

Harley-Davidson Presentation "Motorcycle Industry Overview" Farley

Global Research

10 June 2026ab

Harley-Davidson Presentation Equities

AmericasMotorcycle Industry OverviewPlease

Recreational Products & Services

Robin M. Farley

Analyst

robin.farley@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2060

Arpine Kocharyan

arpine.kocharyan@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2086

Alex Kivali

alex.kivali@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3945

Robert Henry

Associate Analyst

robert.henry@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2256

Derin Sezercan

derin.sezercan@ubs.com

+1-212-713 4716Harley-DavidsonIs World's Leading Maker of Heavyweight Motorcycles Anoop Savio

Harley-Davidson manufactures roughly half of the heavyweight motorcycles sold in the

anoop.savio@ubs.com

U.S. and roughly one-third worldwide. U.S. retail sales volume was down -13% YOY in +1-212-713 1057

'25, down -4% YOY in '24, down -10% in '23, down -13% in '22, up +22% in '21, and

down -18% YOY in ’20, as Covid impacted sales in 1H and low inventory in the channel

impacted sales in 2H. The company shifted the timing of its new model year launch from

Q3’20 to Q1’21. Since '13 HOG has seen decelerating retail sales growth in the U.S.,

growing +4.4% in '13, +1.3% in '14, down -1.7% in '15, down -3.9% in '16, down -

8.5% in '17, down -10.2% in '18, and -5.2% in '19.

Getting More Constructive

We are as constructive on HOG as we have been in years, with a near-term outlook that

seems achievable for 2027. After “hitting the bricks” with management recently, we

believe new management can effectively show growth in the next year, with cost saves

and tariff reductions helping bridge to growth in ’26 and ’27. We still need to see more

evidence of the fundamental demand shift needed to reach HOG’s medium-term goals,

but we believe there are drivers in the next 12 months that are likely to give investors a