Clover Health Investments Corp "4.5 Stars a Solid Outcome, but Unclear If..."

Research evidence excerpt

Clover Health Investments Corp "4.5 Stars a Solid Outcome, but Unclear If..."

Global Research

10 June 2026ab

Clover Health Investments Corp Equities

United States4.5 Stars a Solid Outcome, but Unclear If It Holds

Healthcare Providers

12-month rating Neutral *

Stars Recalculated to 4.5 (from 3.5) - Good Outcome, but Will it Hold?

CLOV announced today that CMS recalculated the company's 2026 Star ratings 12m price target US$4.75

(PY2027) for contract H5141 to 4.5 Stars from 3.5 Stars previously. This is in-line with Prior : US$2.75

our estimate of where the company's Stars would move under the scenario where all 20

Price (10 Jun 2026) US$4.89

metrics were removed following the initial litigation win (Link). CLOV will submit

alternative bids under the premise of having a 4.5 Star rating. With that, we note CMS RIC: CLOV.O BBG: CLOV US

still has the option to appeal the litigation and could conceivably win and have the ruling

Trading data and key metrics

reversed/enjoined, which could potentially reverse CLOV's Stars benefit. Given the

52-wk range US$4.89-1.70

premise of an alternative bid submission, this would suggest CMS could potentially

revert back to the 3.5 Star bid submission if an appeal was successful. For now, we are Market cap. US$2.60b

opting not to embed the 4.5 Star rating in our estimates acknowledging the uncertainty. Shares o/s 532m (COM)

With that, we are increasing our EV/revenue multiple to reflect the potentially improving Free float 92%

backdrop in the MA landscape from a utilization perspective following commentary Avg. daily volume ('000) 6,862

from peers and checks alongside an acknowledgement of potential upside if the Stars Avg. daily value (m) US$20.3

improvement were to hold. We maintain our Neutral rating. Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$0.37b