Machinery, E&C and Waste: Construction outlook call takeaways: Trending sideways excluding data centers

Research evidence excerpt

Machinery, E&C and Waste: Construction outlook call takeaways: Trending sideways excluding data centers

Exhibit 3: Total Value Share of Data Center Starts by Project Size, %.

Medium and large data centers picking up steam

Source: Dodge

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Strong power demand, though starts to ease from peak levels in the outer years

Dodge expects power construction activity to remain elevated even as starts ease from

peak levels. Starts are forecast to peak in 2025-2026 and moderate thereafter, but even

projected 2027 levels remain historically strong, with 2015 the only earlier year above

those levels. At the same time, the EIA pipeline for generating capacity continues to

expand, though Dodge noted that it is unclear to what extent data-center-related

capacity is fully captured in those figures, potentially explaining some divergence

between capacity expectations and starts data. The broader takeaway is that power is

normalizing from a surge, not declining from a peak, with sustained demand driven by

electrification and data center expansion.

Exhibit 3: Power Generating Capacity vs Power Construction Starts Exhibit 4: US data center and fossil fuel energy infrastructure

Power gen capacity slowly building yet starts to level off from recent peaks Illustration of growing US data center and fossil fuel energy infrastructure

Source: Dodge Source: Dodge

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Warehouses starts likely to accelerate with rising Amazon activity

Warehouse construction reflects delayed but fundamentally intact demand, with

potential for reacceleration if uncertainty improves. Dodge highlighted Amazon as a

leading indicator, noting recent signs of renewed activity following a surge in 2020-

2021, suggesting a possible rebound in 2026.