South Africa Watch: Solid start, softer path: Growth holds despite energy shock

Research evidence excerpt

South Africa Watch: Solid start, softer path: Growth holds despite energy shock

GDP by sectors

Strong agriculture now, but input and weather risks loom

Agriculture sector grew by 3.9% a high level compared to 0.4% in 4Q. Stronger

agricultural output in 1Q was driven by improved field crop production alongside solid

gains in horticulture, particularly fruits, wine, and vegetables. However, risks to the

sector are building into early 2027. Fertiliser prices remain elevated, although supply

conditions are currently adequate. Any disruptions, such as delays or shortages in urea

deliveries ahead of the October 2026 planting season could tighten supply further,

driving up input costs and weighing on output for the 2026/27 harvest. This would pose

downside risks to agricultural production and upside risk to food prices. In addition, the

potential impact of an El Niño event on rainfall patterns will be a key factor to monitor,

given its implications for crop yields and overall agricultural performance.

Mining and services provide key growth support in 1Q

Mining delivered a positive contribution in 1Q, with output rising by 0.7%, driven largely

by strong performance in gold and platinum group metals (PGMs). Services sectors also

remained supportive, with solid growth in finance as well as in transport, storage and

communication. Meanwhile, trade activity strengthened, underpinned by gains across

retail and wholesale trade, motor trade, and food and beverages, alongside improved

performance in the accommodation sector.

Government services have remained a source of support to growth over recent quarters,

underpinned by increased spending on goods and services as well as a rising wage bill

linked to higher civil service employment- higher education institutions, as well as local