Arctic: Oil and Tankers Daily - Diplomacy stalls, deficit deepens

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic: Oil and Tankers Daily - Diplomacy stalls, deficit deepens

he Red Sea following an early

surge. With Russian production lower by its own admission, although no number has been confirmed,Kuwait and Bahrain over the weekend. Last week, Brent gained +$1.97 to $93.09 as the market

and US output remaining flat, we expect that the IEA next week will report a further drop in globalbecame increasingly skeptical that the two sides would be able to reach a deal to reopen Hormuz.

output, thus taking the decline from the Feb peak back around 12 mbd. With oil demand now starting

Geopolitical update: Ceasefire increasingly fragile as Iran, Israel both defy Trump its seasonal rise into the summer, this means that the deficit is widening again, and commercial

The reopening of Hormuz remains the key for any kind of stabilization to the oil market but is being stock draws are set to continue.

pushed farther down the line, to the cost of nearly 100 mbls of lost supply pr week. President Trump's

China imports extended collapse in May. Clock ticking for reboundclaim two weeks ago that the deal was "virtually done" has come to nothing, and the latest

Tanker trackers see China crude imports below 7 mbd in May, a further drop of 2.4 mbd from thedevelopments point to a potential resumption of the war. While the diplomatic process is not officially

broken, its status remains in serious doubt after Iran last week claimed it was suspending any talks official April numbers and down 4.0 mbd, or 35%, from May 25. There is nothing in the broader

macro data nor shorter-term mobility indicators to suggest that oil demand is falling at any kind ofin response to Israel's attack in Lebanon. Importantly, both Iran and Israel have shifted back to an

aggressive stance.