Wolfe GREEN Playbook 06/07/26

Research evidence excerpt

Wolfe GREEN Playbook 06/07/26

Clean Energy

Clean Energy – Market Weight

June 7, 2026

WOLFE GREEN PLAYBOOK

Trump boon for Clean Energy stocks continues; SpaceX implications minor for now;

Geothermal bills

Steve Fleishman

Links: Clean Energy Comps, Models

Presidential shocker refresh – Clean Energy continues to outperform under Trump

This week, we check in on our previous observation regarding Clean Energy stock performance under the Trump

administration. Interestingly, and counterintuitively, we find that the TAN has outperformed the broader market

in each congressional term while Donald Trump has been in office and underperformed in all but one term while

a Democrat has been in office. The Trump administration is now ~1/3 of the way through its current term and

enjoying party control of the Executive and Legislative branches. Shockingly, Clean Energy continues to

massively outperform the broader market (SPY) and the energy sector (XLE). This is despite IRA credits being

tightened under One Big Beautiful Bill, tariffs, and multifaceted Republican efforts to deemphasize clean energy

in favor of conventional energy. The TAN is up 82% so far under this Trump administration compared to 25% for

the SPY. We attribute this primarily to investors’ renewed recognition of Clean Energy as a data center play while

legislative actions to slow Clean Energy turned out to have less teeth than feared. We also continue to point to

the fact that favored sectors tend to see more competition as barriers to entry are lowered. Ironically, the only

real boost the XLE has gotten from the Trump administration so far was foreign policy actions against Iran, which

led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and WTI prices >$100/bbl.