The Roth Report: Mid-Year Outlook - After a Brief O-I-L Interruption, Back to A, I, and K

Research evidence excerpt

The Roth Report: Mid-Year Outlook - After a Brief O-I-L Interruption, Back to A, I, and K

June 7, 2026

Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey: AI Adoption Rate by Industry (%)

Rec Mfg Mfg Mfg Mfg Serv Svcs Svcs Svcs Svcs Svcs Svcs Mills Sites Mgmt Assist Estate Stores Stores Places Mining Gas& Transp Transp Transp Transp Utilities Sports Dealers Hosting Carriers Related Internet Storage Hunting Stations Facilities Oil Hospitals Agents& Industries Mach & Care & & Tech & Air Passenger… Eqpt/Supp… Sound ex Agriculture Transpfor Real Care Contractors Forestry Engineering Messengers Book Textile Investments Product Mdse Apparel Social Construction Stores Maintenance Wholesalers & Truck Historic Waste Support Support Laundry Parts Care Water & & & & & & & & Drinking & Accommodation Svcs Pic Civil Educational Arts/Spec E-Mkts Appliance Gen Health Gasoline & Rntl/Leasing Fishing Insurance Trade Ground Furnishings Gds & & Sightseeing Resid Activities Telecommunications Stores & Related Publishing Personal & Processing Perf Repair & Intermiation Admin Merchant & Svcs Mat/Garden Couriers & Vehicle Printing Motion Warehousing Broadcasting Securities Personal Home Museums Heavy Amuse/Gamble/Recreation Stores Data Eqpt/Appl/Component Profess/Scientific/Tech Specialty Furn Sporting Transit Bldg Scenic Food Wholesale Support Credit Ambulatory Motor Health Nursing Electronics Elec Source: Wolfe Research, Haver Analytics, as of May 31, 2026

We estimate the breakeven rate for job growth (i.e., the pace of payroll growth needed to keep the unemployment

rate unchanged) at roughly 65–75k. The labor supply picture should be relatively unchanged in 2027, as we do not

expect net immigration dynamics to shift meaningfully. Native-born population growth, however, is likely to provide