Wurtzel's Weekly Wrap - Update on Employment Trends and Coverage Implications

Research evidence excerpt

Wurtzel's Weekly Wrap - Update on Employment Trends and Coverage Implications

Business and Information Services

Business and Information Services - Market Weight

Credit Bureaus - Market Overweight

Wurtzel's Weekly Wrap - Update on Employment Trends June 7, 2026

and Coverage Implications

TICKER RTG PT % UP

The Wolfe Byte ADP PP NA NA

In this edition of Wurtzel's Weekly Wrap, we discuss recent employment BR PP NA NA

trends following the release of April/May data. Employment picture looks stable CLVT PP NA NA

CSGP OP $50 47.5%

to slightly more positive, which could be constructive near-term for payroll/ EFX PP NA NA

background screening stocks. EXPN-GB OP £33 26.0%

FA PP NA NA

FDS UP $215 (15.9%)

●May Employment Data Positive: Over the last week, we have received updated FICO OP $1,450 27.5%

job growth data from ADP, PAYX, and the BLS. ADP's NER for May showed IT PP NA NA

M/M growth of +122K (+0.2%), about in-line with April's M/M growth on a MCO OP $535 18.5% MSCI OP $710 15.4%

percentage basis. Y/Y growth accelerated from +0.4% to +0.6% (see exhibits PAYX UP $95 (5.5%)

1-2). PAYX's Small Business Jobs Index showed a slight M/M increase in May, SPGI OP $515 21.3%

suggesting steadily improving employment trends (though the index remains TRU OP $90 27.4%

VRSK OP $220 21.1%

below 100, see exhibit 3). Our regressions plotting ADP and PAYX's organic OP=Outperform, PP=Peer Perform,

ES/MS revenue growth ex-float against their respective employment reports UP=Underperform, NR=Not Rated

are pointing to accelerating organic revenue growth in F4Q (see exhibits

4-5) NFPs released on Friday showed continued solid trends, with both total

nonfarm and private nonfarm payrolls coming in ahead of expectations for the

month of May.

Scott Wurtzel