Global Copper: Chile production falls sharply in April - company analysis

Research evidence excerpt

Global Copper: Chile production falls sharply in April - company analysis

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

North America 11 June 2026

Latin America Global Copper

Global Market Update

Industrials

Metals & Mining

Chile production falls sharply in April -

company analysis

Liam Fitzpatrick

Chilean copper production contracts sharply in April Research Analyst

Chilean copper production fell sharply in April, reinforcing a weaker near-term +44-20-754-13233

supply backdrop. Chile output declined 14% YoY to 397kt (down 5% MoM on a

Bastian Synagowitz

days-adjusted basis), with YTD production now down 8%. By contrast, Peru output Research Analyst

was stronger at 230kt, up 4% YoY (YTD +4%). Combined Chile and Peru production +41-44-227-3377

declined 8% YoY in April and 4% YTD, underlining the importance of Chilean

Cody Hayden

weakness for global supply given the two countries account for roughly one-third

Research Analyst

of mined output. While we expect some recovery across key assets in H2 2026

+44-20-754-13230

(Collahuasi, Los Pelambres, QB), structural grade decline at Escondida is likely to

continue to weigh on Chilean output over the next two years.

Our preferred copper equities remain Anglo Teck, FCX and FM.

Company and key mines performance

n The largest driver of the decline was Escondida (BHP, RIO), where

production fell 22% YoY in April, although the mine is tracking in line with

our Q2 estimate and with company guidance. The world's largest mine

accounted for ~25% and 6% of Chile and global output, respectively, in

2025. Escondida grades are expected to continue to decline in the years

ahead, with BHP guiding FY27 and FY28 (June year end) production at 1.0-

1.1 mt and 0.9-1.0 mt, respectively, compared to 1.4 mt in CY25. The