Healthcare: Dispensing Pharmacies: Consolidation into the 2030s; focus on true value creation

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Healthcare: Dispensing Pharmacies: Consolidation into the 2030s; focus on true value creation

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Healthcare

Dispensing Pharmacies: Consolidation into

the 2030s; focus on true value creation

Industry Overview

09 June 2026

Market peak-out in the 2030s, consolidation to accelerate Equity

Japan’s dispensing pharmacy market has expanded from ¥1tn in the early 1990s to Japan

around ¥9tn. However, looking ahead, we expect growth in the elderly population to Healthcare

plateau, while fiscal constraints will increase downward pressure on outpatient visits and

dispensing fee unit prices. We expect the market to peak out in the early 2030s, RitsuoResearchWatanabeAnalyst >>

followed by consolidation under a shrinking equilibrium, with major dispensing chains BofAS Japan

+81 3 6225 6259

and drugstores gaining share (combined share: 28% in FY3/25 → 45% in FY3/35E). In ritsuo.watanabe@bofa.com

this report, we provide a long-term analysis of the dispensing pharmacy market toward Kei Takeuchi >>

2030s and beyond, examining both demand and supply dynamics, and policy changes. Research Analyst

BofAS Japan

kei.takeuchi@bofa.com

Raise Ain to Neutral, but hurdles remain for bull stance

On June 9, we upgraded Ain Holdings from Underperform to Neutral (PO: ¥6,600 to

¥6,500), reflecting the share price decline since February and easing concerns over Exhibit 1: Major chain market share to

FY4/27 earnings. While Ain is expected to deliver revenue growth exceeding its medium- rise 45% in 2034

term vision through aggressive M&A (¥384.7bn in FY4/25 → ¥939.1bn in FY4/35E), Industry concentration (Sales)

there is a significant risk of margin stagnation in the dispensing pharmacy business. We

believe a shift to a bullish stance would require greater-than-expected improvements in Major