Q1/F26 First Look: EBITDA Miss on Soft Canada Sales and SG&A Inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Q1/F26 First Look: EBITDA Miss on Soft Canada Sales and SG&A Inflation

Consumer Staples

North West Company Inc.

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA QUICK TAKE: EARNINGS UPDATE

June 9, 2026

Price: C$53.36 (06/9/2026) Q1/F26 First Look: EBITDA Miss on Soft

Price Target: C$63.00 Canada Sales and SG&A Inflation

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 59/100

Cheryl Zhang, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 983 2755

Canada sales remain pressured by the lapping of funding programs, while International

cheryl.zhang@tdsecurities.com

momentum continues. The lower-than-expected topline and SG&A inflation more than

Michael Van Aelst, CFA^ offset Next 100 benefits, leading to a 3% adj EBITDA (ex-SBC) miss vs. consensus. Timing of

514 289 0518 settlement payment ramp-up remains unclear and we will look for more clarity on the call.

michael.vanaelst@tdsecurities.com

Evan Frantzeskos, CFA^ Event

514 985 2191 ■Adj. EBITDA excluding stock-based compensation (SBC) was -3% y/y and 3% below

evan.frantzeskos@tdsecurities.com consensus.

Key Data ■Adj EPS of $0.57 (+1% y/y) came in below our $0.68 estimate, mostly on a lower than

Symbol TSX: NWC-T expected EBITDA. Consensus was $0.67 (range: $0.62-$0.70), though it is not clear if all

Market Cap C$2.5B estimates are after SBC.

General: Note: 2025A, 2026E and 2027E denote the fiscal

years ending January 2026, January 2027 and January Impact: NEGATIVE

2028, respectively.

■Canada SSSG of -0.9% was weaker than expected (-0.1%). Sales remain soft as NWC

laps prior funding programs, including the sunset of ICFI food voucher program (although

should be fully cycled by Q2), and reduced payments from First Nations Drinking Water

Claim Settlements. In addition, more challenging weather conditions further pressured

sales and led to merchandise transportation delays.