Europe Autos: The Rise of Chinese Exports; Introducing New Monthly Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

Europe Autos: The Rise of Chinese Exports; Introducing New Monthly Tracker

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

June 9, 2026

■Automobiles & Components: Automobile Europe Autos: The Rise of Chinese Exports;

Components

& Components: Automobiles Introducing New Monthly Tracker■Automobiles

Itay Michaeli THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1412

With the focus on rising Chinese exports in Europe, we're launching a detailed tracker

itay.michaeli@tdsecurities.com

leveraging monthly country registration data. Please contact us for the data file. Two

Justin Barell takeaways: (1) Across the six largest countries, TTM Chinese export share has reached 7% vs.

646 562 1377 4% last year, with Renault (RNM), Stellantis and Hyundai/Kia ceding the most share. (2) VGNT,

justin.barell@tdsecurities.com

DCH & BWA screen more defensively.

Selina Liu

646 562 1449 We'd appreciate your 5-star Extel Vote in Autos & Auto Parts. Thank You!

selina.liu2@tdsecurities.com

What's New?

With the rise of Chinese export share in Europe and slowing domestic China retail sales (which

could further amplify export reliance), we're launching a Europe country-level tracker to assess

Chinese export share, resulting automaker market share shifts, and supplier exposures to

these shifts. We welcome your feedback.

Where Are Chinese Exports Penetrating Most Across Major Markets?

Across the six largest European markets (~70% of sales), TTM Chinese export share has

reached 7% vs. 4% last year. Within the six countries, most penetrated are: UK (14% of Europe

sales | 11% Chinese export share); Spain (8% | 10%); Italy (10% | 10%) and Turkey (8% | 6%). Least

penetrated are Germany (18% | 3%) and France (11% | 3%).

Chinese exports appear to be gaining the most momentum in Spain & Italy over the past three

months.