The Talk of Toy Land: Movie Madness - Mando Underwhelms, Solid MOTU Opening

Research evidence excerpt

The Talk of Toy Land: Movie Madness - Mando Underwhelms, Solid MOTU Opening

USA | Toys EquityJuneResearch7, 2026

The Talk of Toy Land: Movie Madness - Mando

Underwhelms, Solid MOTU Opening

This Talk of Toy Land highlights diverging entertainment read-throughs, with

Mando & Grogu’s weak box office signaling softer CP demand for HAS into

Q2-Holiday. In contrast, Masters of the Universe’s stronger start de-risks MAT’s

downside, supports our base-case outlook, and reinforces confidence in

incremental entertainment-driven sales upside.

Solid MOTU Opening, Constructive Read-Through to MAT, Bear Case Off the Table:

Early box office results for Masters of the Universe appear to be tracking above a worst-case

outcome, which in our scenario work implied just ~$70M of gross billings and a de minimis ~

$10M sales contribution to MAT (our bear case). While still early, the strength of the opening

suggests a trajectory at least consistent with our base-case framework ($375M gross / ~$109M

sales contribution), reinforcing our prior view that MAT does not need a “Barbie-like” breakout to

drive upside. Importantly, this level of performance should translate into meaningful merchandising

support through Q2 into Holiday, and with downside now less likely, we are effectively ruling out our

bear case scenario, supporting a more constructive setup for both CP-driven sales and incremental

EBIT contribution.

Mando & Grogu Box Office Softness, Read-Through to HAS: Early box office performance for The

Mandalorian & Grogu has been underwhelming relative to franchise history, with a sub-$100mm

domestic opening (lowest of the Disney-era Star Wars films) and a sharp ~70% second-weekend

drop, followed by continued >50% declines that have pushed the film out of the top five within weeks.