China trade Resilience holds

Research evidence excerpt

China trade Resilience holds

Economics ● China

9 June 2026

Implications

China’s May trade data shows another month of resilience. Exports rose 19.4% y-o-y, sustaining double-digit growth (HSBC: 15.0%,

Bbg: 15.0%), while imports were up 27.4% y-o-y, also exceeding market expectations (HSBC: 30.0%, Bbg: 26.0%). Certainly, strong

global AI demand continued to support both flows, but a stabilising China-US trade relationship also boded well for direct exports to

the US. Meanwhile, China’s ongoing manufacturing competitiveness continued to underpin exports of capital goods. Overall, the

trade surplus modestly expanded to USD105.4bn in May (vs USD102.7bn a year earlier). Looking ahead, while the impact of the

Middle East conflict on trade engines looks muted so far, lagged effects could become a key swing factor once oil reserves and front-

loaded purchases fade. We are of the view that China’s relative resilience should help induce export orders back, though the overall

strength also hinges on the global growth outlook, which could weaken further if the conflict persists.

By products, the key driver of export growth still stemmed from semiconductors, whose exports rose strongly by 111% y-o-y. Looking

ahead, the global AI cycle looks durable as consensus capex forecasts for the four main US hyper-scalers suggest the demand for

chips will likely stay strong for quite some time (see Asia Chart of the Week, 29 May). The second category providing a strong boost

again came from transport items, thanks to China’s strong industrial supply chain competitiveness. Of note, while the detailed data

breakdown will only be available on 18 June, data from the China Passenger Car Association already noted that exports of EVs in

volume terms were up c113% y-o-y in May (CPCA, 8 June).