Global Tech Platforms B2B up, B2C down: our new AI TAM forecasts to 2030

Research evidence excerpt

Global Tech Platforms B2B up, B2C down: our new AI TAM forecasts to 2030

9 June 2026

Global Tech Platforms EquitiesInternet Software & Services

B2B up, B2C down: our new AI TAM forecasts to 2030 United States

◆ B2B: AI adoption up, driven by Anthropic but lifting all boats; Nicolas Cote-Colisson*

we increase industry revenue forecasts by 74% in 2026-30e MD, Head of Global Tech Platforms HSBC Continental Europe

nicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com

◆ B2C: we cut our 2026-30e market revenue by 20% as user +44 20 7991 6826

growth slows and monetisation lags at leader OpenAI Abhishek Shukla*, CFA

Senior Analyst, Technology

HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFC

◆ We increase our AI TAM by 38% in 2026-30e; we update our abhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com

OAI 2026-30e funding gap calculation, halved at USD77bn +971 4 5093343

Mohammed Khallouf*, CFA

Global Tech Platforms Analyst

We increase our AI TAM by 38% in 2026-30e mohammed.khallouf@hsbc.com +971 4 509 3337

Trends that have emerged since April: (1) the B2B AI market is accelerating Paul Rossington*

significantly and (2) the B2C market is not growing as fast as we were expecting. For Senior Global Tech Platforms Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

background, see Global Tech Platforms: OpenAI: Back to chatbots – new HSBC paul.rossington@hsbcib.com

forecasts, 1 April and OpenAI launches its new frontier model, 24 April. +44 20 7991 6734

Charlie Rothbarth*

We are updating our industry revenue estimates: Global Tech Platforms Analyst

◆ AI B2B industry revenue: we increase our estimates by 74% over 2026-30e. charlie.rothbarth@hsbc.com

Agentic AI brings new use cases and accelerates adoption, coding tools are +44 203 2685284

progressing fast too. Anthropic is a clear leader in B2B, OpenAi (OAI) remains a Stephen Bersey

Head of US Technology Research