Paper, Packaging & Forest Products

Research evidence excerpt

Paper, Packaging & Forest Products

RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Matthew McKellar, CFA

(Analyst)

(403) 476-9042,

matthew.mckellar@rbccm.com

Amit Prasad, CFA (Associate)

(403) 476-7417,

amit.prasad@rbccm.com

June 7, 2026

Paper, Packaging & Forest ProductsRESEARCH The Continuous Digester – What we learned this week

U.S. imports of European lumber increased sequentially in March, but remained low. We highlighted

in our May 27 lumber stats note that U.S. imports of European lumber in February were down 61.7%

y/y and 65.5% m/m to the lowest level since May 2018. Trade data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural

Service indicates that the value of European softwood lumber imported into the U.S. more than doubled

m/m in March 2026, although the value of imports remained relatively low (-55.3% y/y, and below the

value imported in any month from December 2021 through January 2026, outside of September 2024).

Germany and Sweden together accounted for 73% of total EU imports in March 2026 (-56.9% and -51.0%EQUITY

y/y, respectively), with Sweden rebounding sharply from near-zero February volumes. We note that U.S.

10% Section 232 tariffs on imports of lumber from all countries came into effect in October 2025.

Recovered paper prices were higher to start June. According to RISI, average U.S. old corrugated

container (OCC) prices were up $11/ton in June to $74/ton. Sorted office paper (SOP) prices were up

$11/ton to $132/ton.

U.S. Section 301 tariffs on Brazil will affect uncoated freesheet (UFS) but spare dissolving pulp.

According to RISI, various pulp grades, including hardwood, softwood, and fluff pulp will not be subject

to Section 301 tariffs. However, several paper grades (including tissue products, printing and writing