MONDI PLC / MONDI PLC ADR : A crinkle in time: navigating the 2026 headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

MONDI PLC / MONDI PLC ADR : A crinkle in time: navigating the 2026 headwinds

Refinitiv

Investment thesis

We initiate coverage on Mondi with an Underperform rating and GBp660 TP.

Mondi is most significantly exposed to later-cycle kraft (packaging) paper in its Flexible

Packaging business and to containerboard in its Corrugated segment. Since H2 ’25, the

company has been affected by relatively weak demand and low prices, and more recently

by headwinds from energy and raw material price inflation stemming from the Middle

East conflict, which, in our view, are not fully reflected in consensus estimates.

While recent price increases could support H2 profitability, we doubt the company’s

ability to accelerate price pass-through from container board to consumer products in

this weak demand environment. In addition, the graphic packaging division will continue

to face volume headwinds and margin pressure in this high-cost environment. Cost

cutting will aid the converting business; however, at the milling level the company already

shows excellent performance in cash-cost curves (except for Duino), limiting upside on

that front.

After the aggressive expansion capex plan, weak demand and oversupply in certain

grades will affect the ramp-up pace, especially at Duino’s plant. Capex levels will be

reduced significantly to c. EUR550m from this year (compared to an average of

c.EUR860m excluding acquisitions in the last 3 years), helping Mondi reduce its 2.8x

ND/EBITDA26e to 2.1x 2028.

We believe consensus has not fully incorporated the main short-term risks affecting the

company in Q2, and, despite assuming a turnaround in H2, we are in line with FY26

consensus but 5% below for 1H26. We rate Mondi Underperform with GBp660 TP.

Mondi, a specialist in kraft