TELECOM OPERATORS : Starlink Broadband: Capacity and Economics of Disruption

Research evidence excerpt

TELECOM OPERATORS : Starlink Broadband: Capacity and Economics of Disruption

Refinitiv

Investment Summary

Background and what is the debate?

– Competition in US broadband has been persistently underestimated by

consensus. A core tenet of our sector view over the last 5 years has been that

consensus continues to underestimate competition in the US Broadband market,

manifesting with Underperform ratings on US Cable names (A fight on all fronts). More

recently our April 2026 STAMP* survey data1 led us to the conclusion we were at a

further tipping point for wider US broadband pricing / ARPU, with fiber operators likely

to come under increasing pressure promoting us to downgrade AT&T (Caught in the

crossfiber). Why are things getting worse? A combination of cable fighting back, fiber

build accelerating, M&A, the accelerating decline of DSL; all exacerbated by increasing

competition from SpaceX's Starlink broadband business.

– Investors have grown increasing cautious on US telco / cable names through

the SpaceX IPO process. The SpaceX IPO process (Takeaways from the SpaceX S-

1) has since shed increasing light on Starlink's broadband threat. This has been

compounded by the ongoing AWS-3 spectrum auction (on 14th May ’26 we cautioned

SpaceX may bid creating downside risk for wireless names – Telcos vs SpaceX) and

broader concern about SpaceX entering the wireless industry through a terrestrial

network build of their own; which has all served to cement investor concern over US

Cable and Wireless names.

– How disruptive could Starlink be in broadband? Sizing Starlink capacity,

economics, demand. How much capacity do they have for broadband subscribers

globally? Can they use all this capacity (what about time spent over water and