MOLTEN VENTURES (+) : FY26 results - Take a look with an ice-cold eye

Research evidence excerpt

MOLTEN VENTURES (+) : FY26 results - Take a look with an ice-cold eye

Investment case, valuation and risks

Molten Ventures (Outperform, Target Price GBP6.8)

Investment case

Molten Ventures is a UK VC fund with exposure to four core sectors: Consumer

technology, Digital Health, AI/Deeptech & Hardware, and Cloud/Enterprise & SaaS.

Molten has been investing directly in AI businesses for several years. The upcoming

Mansion House Accord could stimulate a large inflow of AUM from UK Pension funds

into venture capital. The current 30% discount to NAV looks too wide to us. Outperform.

Valuation methodology

We apply a 20% discount to our 12m fwd NAV, which is the 12mth rolling average during

2019, the period before the VC boom in 2020 and the subsequent correction. This points

to a 680p TP. A 20% discount to NAV, we believe, captures the current concerns around

some software models becoming obsolescent potentially, for a proportion of the portfolio

and general scepticism about private markets NAVs. All of which was true in the period

immediately before the Middle East conflict when the stock last traded at that level.

Risks

To the upside:

- Falling interest rates drive investment flows to venture capital at an accelerated rate.

- Government pressure to implement the Mansion House Accord could see strong

inflows to VC and Molton in particular

- An IPO of Revolut could make investors trusting more the company's NAV calculation

- Higher levels of realisations support the NAV methodology

To the downside:

- Higher interest rates dampen investment flows to VC

- The failure of a portfolio company due to an AI entrant

- A share issue below NAV

BNP Paribas Research Molten Ventures 9 JUNE 2026 page 3

jholodak@ucsd.edu Jamie Holodak 06/14/26 06:20:28 PM University of California San Diego