Toray Industries: Undervalued Even Amidst Strong Profit Growth Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Toray Industries: Undervalued Even Amidst Strong Profit Growth Outlook

Idea

June 11, 2026 09:21 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MToray Industries (3402) | Japan Takato Watabe

Equity Analyst

Undervalued Even Amidst Takato.Watabe@morganstanleymufg.comRyoichi Watanabe +81 3 6836-5436

Ryoichi.Watanabe@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8929

Strong Profit Growth Outlook Kayoko Shoji

Research Associate

Kayoko.Shoji@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5437

No big changes to F3/28e; PT unchanged. Still OW; still Top Pick. Kano Fujita

PT ¥1,600; still OW: We update F3/27-28 forecasts, newly introduce F3/29 Kano.Fujita@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8932

estimates: F3/27 forecasts lowered on worsening Middle East conditions, but no

material change to our view on F3/28. We still expect earnings expansion above

consensus, and keep ¥1,600 SOTP-based PT (segmental EV/EBITDAs; PT equiv. to

8.5x EV/EBITDA on F3/27e, vs. 8.7x previously; multiple differs due to change in

profit mix). For F3/27, we forecast business profit (BP) of ¥170bn, above prior OP

Toray Industries (3402.T, 3402 JT)

record under J-GAAP (¥156.5bn in F3/18) and first profit peak in ~10 years. The shift Top Pick

to ROIC management, alongside earnings improvement initiatives (Darwin Project; Fine Chemicals | Japan

"D-Project") and strategic pricing, is yielding significant effects. Toray has

Stock Rating Overweight

underperformed TOPIX by ~4ppt YTD, placing it among weaker performers within Industry View In-Line

our chemical coverage. We attribute the lag to the miss in F3/26 results and investor Price target ¥1,600

Up/downside to price target (%) 43

concerns about Middle East tensions (e.g., weaker margins for carbon fiber Shr price, close (Jun 11, 2026) ¥1,119

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥1,628.7