Navan Inc: F1Q27 Results – Is Navan the Next Samsara?

Research evidence excerpt

Navan Inc: F1Q27 Results – Is Navan the Next Samsara?

IdeaM

Risk Reward - Navan IncTop Pick(NAVN.O)Risk Reward – Navan Inc (NAVN.O)

Clear Skies for Market Share Gains

PRICE TARGET $33.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Our base case forecasts Navan maintaining an ~19% CAGR through CY34, reaching $3.1 billion With a large market opportunity, strong

in total revenue, with an operating margin of 22%, generating $613 million in FCF. We apply a competitive positioning, and AI leadership,

22X multiple to terminal year FCF and discount back at a 11.8% WACC to arrive at our $33 there is a lot to like about Navan. Even

price target. though the AI disruption risk to application

software / travel remains an overhang on

$23.93 the sector, we see the potential for growth

Consensus Price Target Distribution $18.00 $33.00 to surprise to the upside against

MS PT conservative near-term estimates. On a

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates medium-term basis, we look for greater

evidence of cross-selling additional products

into the customer base to show further

RISK REWARD CHART upside to estimates. With the stock trading

at ~5X CY27 Sales / 7X CY27 Gross Profit,

we see an attractive opportunity to own a

USD clear market leader.

$50.00$50.00(+139.58%)$50.00(+139.58%)(+139.58%)

48 Consensus Rating Distribution

100%Overweight

36 0% Equal-weight

$33.00$33.00(+58.12%)$33.00(+58.12%)(+58.12%) 0% Underweight

MS Rating

$20.87$20.87$20.87 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

12 $17.00$17.00(-18.54%)$17.00(-18.54%)(-18.54%)

Risk Reward Themes

Disruption: Positive

0 New Data Era: Positive

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27 Technology Diffusion: Positive

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here