Global Macro Commentary: June 11: Iran Deal Rally

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary: June 11: Iran Deal Rally

Update

June 11, 2026 10:10 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | Global Molly Nickolin

Strategist

June 11: Iran Deal Rally Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Trump canceled planned Iran strikes; Treasuries rallied and oil Sofia Palacios

fell; ECB hiked 25bp; US PPI beat; equities rebounded; LatAm FX StrategistSofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

led EM gains; DXY at 99.69 (-0.3%); US 10y at 4.46 (-9.1bp). Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Gek Teng Khoo

Risk sentiment improved after potential US-Iran de-escalation lowered oil and Strategist

haven demand, driving a rates rally, weaker USD, and stronger equities. Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Developed Markets

Hiromu Uezato

• US rates rallied across the curve as President Trump canceled planned Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

strikes on Iran and signaled a potential agreement, pulling oil lower and

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

reducing near-term inflation-risk premia (2y: -8.1bp; 10y: -9.1bp; 30y: -

Nimish M Prabhune

7.4bp). The rally accelerated after earlier pressure from a weak 30y auction Strategist

faded. The long bond auction tailed, stopping at 5.020% versus a 5.008% Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

when-issued level, briefly eroding gains in the sector. Hot May PPI initially Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

pushed against the rally, with final demand rising 1.1% m/m versus 0.7% Maria Chiara Russo

expected. Equities rebounded as oil fell and short-covering supported risk Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3499