Love Actuary #193 - Active typhoon season expected in 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Love Actuary #193 - Active typhoon season expected in 2026

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

12 June 2026

Love Actuary

#193 - Active typhoon season expected in 2026

• In this week’s Love Actuary, we consider what a potentially active typhoon European Insurance

AC season means for the reinsurance industry. Our conclusion is that despite the Kamran M Hossain

season being expected to be above average, we don’t see typhoon losses, in (44-20) 3493-3780

isolation, being large enough to move pricing. Our only OW-rated reinsurer is kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

Munich Re, which continues to have more options than peers to navigate the Farooq Hanif

soft market with a highly undemanding valuation. (44 207) 742-8091

farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

• Typhoon season is expected to be heavier than usual in 2026. The Northwest Nadia Claressa

Pacific typhoon season runs between May-October, with the peak in August (44-20) 7134-7613

and September. Based on forecasts from TSR, typhoon season is expected to nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

have above-average activity this year. The forecast looks for 27 tropical storms Bingdi Fan, CFA

vs. the 30-year average of 25.5, 18 typhoons vs the average of 16 and 11 intense (44-20) 7742-5336

typhoons vs the 30-year average of 9.3, with an 82% probability of the season bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

being upper tercile. Factors driving the above-average season include El Niño, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

which contributes to warmer sea surface temperatures and stronger westerly

Specialist Sales contact details:

winds than normal.

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

• Exposure not as severe as Atlantic hurricanes. During an El Niño year, European Financials

typhoons have a tendency to travel towards Japan, where there is a higher risk (44-20) 7134-0355