Terumo (4543) IR Day: We sensed cumulative product improvements; moves into new fields continue

Research evidence excerpt

Terumo (4543) IR Day: We sensed cumulative product improvements; moves into new fields continue

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Asia Pacific Equity Research

Naoko Saito AC 12 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

(81-3) 6736-8693

naoko.saito@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Terumo (4543) (Overweight; Price Target: ¥2,500)

Investment Thesis

Our rating is Overweight. We expect steady profit growth. We think the share price will

hinge on the impact of inflation and product price hike trends in the near term, but the pace

of growth in the OrganOx business and the blood and cell technologies company will be key

over the medium term. We also think the outlook for earnings resulting from M&A will be

a key focus going forward.

Valuation

Our price target of ¥2,500 is based on our FY2026 EPS estimate and a P/E of 25x. We believe

this P/E is appropriate given that Terumo traded at an average P/E of 29x and a P/E range

of 27–31x from April 2015, when the US cardiovascular business expanded, to June 2018,

prior to the Ashitaka plant issues and Covid-19 pandemic. We believe our target P/E is

within an acceptable range given Terumo’s high overseas sales growth rate and profit

growth outlook over the next five years, and prospects for mitigating the impact of tariffs

by raising prices. The time horizon of our price target is through end-December 2026.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Solid sales growth for the cardiac and vascular company

• Further profit margin expansion stemming from product mix improvement

• Sales growth in emerging markets

• Announcement of plans to expand the plasma collection business

Downside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Intensifying competition for the cardiac and vascular company