Market Share Bible, Volume 102 Despite Recent Momentum Long-Term Growth Remains Challenging, Margin Outlook Mixed

Research evidence excerpt

Market Share Bible, Volume 102 Despite Recent Momentum Long-Term Growth Remains Challenging, Margin Outlook Mixed

on, LLC, a newly incorporated penetration declining over several decades, and annuity sales trailing asset

subsidiary of Nuveen, LLC, a Teachers inflows into other retirement products. We are generally more positive on

Insurance and Annuity Association of insurance industry products sold through employers (group insurance,

America (“TIAA”) company, as announced voluntary, and retirement), as we expect distribution to continue shifting to the

workplace channel over time, and because workplace-sold products typically on 12th February 2026.

have various levers that provide structural support to growth (adding employer

clients/access, increasing penetration rates with employees, wage growth, and

workforce growth). We also like the long-term growth prospects of the pension

risk transfer business. Outside of the U.S., life insurance markets (except for

mature geographies such as Japan) typically have better growth prospects and

consist of products with simpler designs with less tail risk compared to the U.S.

• We have a mixed outlook for product-level profitability. In individual life

insurance, we expect healthy margins in simpler morbidity/mortality focused

products, and note that much of the poor profitability reported by some insurers

is related to legacy exposures such as ULSG. Turning to annuities, our view is

that the spread compression from recent years - driven by crediting rates

catching up with higher interest rates - has flattened out, although the prospect

of increased competition from private equity affiliated insurers, particularly in

fixed annuities, remains a long-term risk. In group insurance, our view is the