European Banks Daily 11 June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

European Banks Daily 11 June 2026

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

11 June 2026

European Banks Daily

Daily Valuation Sheet | Banks Analyser & Global Banks and Fintech Valuation European Banks

ACWeekly sheet | European Banks 2026 Outlook - PODCAST Kian Abouhossein

(44-20) 7134-4575

Highlights kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

UniCredit:Germany now, Italy later? How the CBK stake level shapes UCG’s J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Italian ambitions

Specialist Sales contact details:Delphine Lee (44-20) 7134-3971

UniCredit is nearing effective control of Commerzbank with a stake of ~41% as of Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

European FinancialsJune 10th. Most investors expect the offer to be improved to achieve a much higher

(44-20) 7134-0355

stake. Financially, a bump would only make sense if acceptance levels are already ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

high and if it allows the group to secure a stake of 60%+ as there is a cliff effect below

60% in terms of ROIC. Strategically, however, we would agree that UCG should seek

control with a stake as high as possible to remove some of the stock overhang. The

challenge is that Italian M&A is back in focus (see our factual note here) and gaining

control of CBK consumes significant capital. If UCG wants to bid for an Italian bank,

unless the group has a very high stake in CBK (closer to 100% than 60%) and CET1

proforma of CBK is high, the group will only be able to offer an all-share-swap deal

with a limited cash component. Most of the Italian bank targets also have significant

shareholders with ambitions of their own. Whilst UCG’s M&A situation remains

complex, we continue to find valuation attractive at 7.7x PE, 1.7x NAV for RoNAV

22.6% in 2028e, with shares already discounting the uncertainty and also further