U.S. Large-Cap Banks: Jason Goldberg's Bank Brief | Volume 23, Issue 104 | 6.10.26

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Large-Cap Banks: Jason Goldberg's Bank Brief | Volume 23, Issue 104 | 6.10.26

Barclays | U.S. Large-Cap Banks

C (CFO): Reiterated 2026 outlook, including 5–6% NII ex-markets growth driven primarily by

client-led mid-single-digit deposit and loan growth. Deposit pricing and betas are continuing to

hold stable, despite uncertainty in the interest rate environment. For 2Q26, expects mid-teens

y-o-y IB fee growth, anchored by ECM activity, and high-single-to-low-double digit trading

revenue growth, with overall cost of credit broadly in line with 1Q26 (~$2.8bn). It continues to

target ~60% efficiency ratio for 2026 (~300bps improvement), driven by revenue momentum,

declining stranded ($1.3bn in 2025 vs. ~$200mn in 1Q26) and transformation costs, and

structural efficiencies from automation and AI. Continues to target a 10-11% ROTCE for 2026,

with near-term targets of 11-13% (skewing toward the higher end by 2028), underpinned by

client intensity, self-funded investments, and capital productivity, and a medium-term target of

14-15% for 2029-2031. On capital, it expects ~$800mn of DTA utilization in 2026, with utilization

increasing over time as U.S. profitability improves. Targets assume a standardized CET1 ratio of

12.6% in 2026-27 (12.7% in 1Q26), representing a 100bp buffer above the 11.6% regulatory

requirement. Under current rules, its CET1 target is expected to rise to ~13.1% in 2028 as the

GSIB score increases by ~50bps (under current construct). While not reflected in ROTCE targets,

C expects a modest net benefit from pending regulatory changes, including Basel III and GSIB

NPR adjustments, as well as a reduction to its SCB.

NTRS (CFO & CIO): Market conditions in 2Q26 have been very constructive, stating it’s a

'Goldilocks-type' situation.