European Retail: Weather tracker (May) – Late heatwave to boost seasonal demand

Research evidence excerpt

European Retail: Weather tracker (May) – Late heatwave to boost seasonal demand

Equity Research

10 June 2026

European Retail

Weather tracker (May) – Late

heatwave to boost seasonal

European General Retaildemand

NEUTRAL

Using retailer-specific weather time series across the UK, European General Retail

Matthew ClementsEurope and the US, we find that weather was broadly less

supportive YoY in early May before improving sharply +44matthew.clements@barclays.com(0)20 7773 6018

(warmer, sunnier, drier weather) in the latter-part of the Barclays, UK

month – consistent with recent retailer commentary. Imogen Doyle

+44 (0)20 7773 2605

imogen.doyle@barclays.com

In collaboration with the Barclays Data Science & Applied AI team, and using the 'Weather Event Barclays, UK

Tracker for Retail' data product (available on Data Hub), we create a historical weather time

Data Science & Applied AIseries for a number of retailers (Inditex, H&M, NEXT, M&S, Kingfisher, B&M), based on their

Vincenzo Pota(iii)individual locations across the US, UK and Continental Europe. Retailer-specific data is in the

+44 (0)20 3134 2097

sections below, but here we summarise our observations. For March through June, we assume vincenzo.pota@barclays.com

that warmer weather, drier and sunnier year-on-year supports spending on spring-summer Barclays, UK

collections and ranges.

For more detail, see our Methodology section below.

Our key observations are:

• Weather in the UK has been more mixed this Spring, versus the strong start to spring/summer

2025. Through May, conditions were similar or worse YoY in the earlier part of the month

(cooler, wetter and cloudier) before improving sharply into the second half during a late-

month heatwave. The Met Office reported a record UK May temperature of 35.1°C. Recent UK