APAC Economic Comment "Vietnam: historical trade deficit" Deng

Research evidence excerpt

APAC Economic Comment "Vietnam: historical trade deficit" Deng

Global Research

9 June 2026ab

APAC Economic Comment Economics

KoreaVietnam: historical trade deficit

William Deng

Economist

Biggest monthly deficit since data made available william-w.deng@ubs.com

+852-2971 6765

In May, Vietnam recorded a USD 5.2 billion monthly trade deficit, marking the largest

monthly trade deficit since data became available in 1997 (Figure 1). With the May Permada Darmono

Analystfigure, the monthly trade deficit streak has now extended for six consecutive months,

permada.darmono@ubs.com

representing the longest deficit period in recent records. It looks likely that, 1H26 will +65-6495 3137

register one of the biggest semi-annual trade deficit for recent history as well.

Trang Nguyen

Analyst

Partly reflecting higher energy costs to the economy

trang-za.nguyen@ubs.com

As a net energy-importing economy, higher oil and gas prices have significantly +65-6495 2495

increased costs. The widening oil trade deficit reflects these elevated expenses. Since the

shock from the Strait of Hormuz, the monthly oil trade deficit has widened by 50%

compared to the months before the shock, reaching around USD 2.3 billion per month

(>5.5% of GDP annualized). We believe energy remains the key challenge for the

economy in the near term. These higher costs are likely to reduce corporate profitability

and household income available for other spending. Importantly, rising energy costs may

also discourage infrastructure investment, as construction costs may exceed budget

plans. Although we have not yet observed significant production disruptions due to

energy input shortages, the risk persists.

Non-energy deficit at historical Level, with export growth continuing to

outperform peers