Australian Economic Comment "Business conditions steady. Consumer sentim..."

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Economic Comment "Business conditions steady. Consumer sentim..."

would be a downside risk compared with our forecasts of ~1% y/y. Meanwhile, since the

start of the RBA's current rate hike cycle in Feb-26, consumer sentiment, fell by a

cumulative ~-13%; which is tracking at the weaker end of prior RBA rate hike cycles.

Sentiment towards housing deteriorated sharply; amid RBA hikes & Budget

House price expectations over recent months retraced significantly, with Jun-26 alone

dropping -15% m/m. There is seemingly a 'lagged' response, to the negative news,

especially from: 1) the RBA raising the cash rate by a cumulative 75bps across their last 3

meetings, (and UBS also expect the RBA to increase interest rates by another 25bps

ahead); and 2) the Australian Government Budget increasing taxes on housing (which

was largely unexpected). Indeed, the share of consumers assessing the 'Budget and

taxation' as 'unfavourable' was very high, at close to 70%. Notably, house price

expectations are now below their long-run average; but the level historically still implies

dwelling prices over coming months could rise modestly, although we think sentiment

could deteriorate further as actual prices weaken. Meanwhile, the 'time to buy a

dwelling' component bounced somewhat, but remains relatively weak; after collapsing

towards a ~record low. Finally the 'wisest place for saving' in Q2-26 showed a material

deterioration of respondents preferring real estate (i.e. residential property), to a record

low share of only 4.5% (down from around ~10% in recent years).

UBS now expect dwelling prices to fall ~-3% to -5% over the coming ~year

Overall, the outlook for dwelling prices continues to deteriorate. Hence, UBS are

downgrading our outlook.